Finding a fair comparison
Begin with the question behind your chosen market. Match-result, goals and player markets need different evidence. Use a consistent source and record when the information was collected.
What to examine
- Quality of recent opponents
- Availability of regular starters
- Chance creation and concession
From research to price
Convert the quoted odds to an implied probability, then ask whether the evidence is strong enough to support a different estimate. Historical frequency is not automatically a forecast. Uncertainty about a line-up or the quality of the sample is a reason to wait.
Read the conditions
Check the period covered by the market and the treatment of extra time, postponements and abandoned games. Similar-looking selections can have different settlement conditions.