Begin with the question
Decide which outcome you are assessing before collecting statistics. A match-winner market asks a different question from total goals or corners. Write down what would support your view and what would contradict it. This makes it harder to select only the numbers that fit an early opinion.
Compare the right sample
Look at home and away performance separately, then consider the opponents in that sample. Five recent games can highlight a change but are too few to establish a dependable rate. Read scorelines alongside shots, chance quality and the time spent leading or trailing. A red card can make a single match a poor comparison.
Check what has changed
Team selection, a new coach, travel and recovery time can make older results less relevant. Separate confirmed news from speculation. If the starting line-up is not available, identify which assumptions depend on it and revisit those assumptions when it is announced.
Translate price into a question
Decimal odds of 2.50 imply a break-even probability of 40% before any deductions. That is a price threshold, not a forecast. A view on which team is stronger is not enough: you would also need a defensible estimate of how often the outcome occurs. It is reasonable to conclude that the evidence does not support a bet.
Keep a record
Record the source, observation time, price and reasoning before the match. Review the process as well as the result afterward. One successful selection does not establish skill, and one losing selection does not disprove a well-supported assessment.